The picks

Playoff Predictions

Opening Round · 42 games · PPI through Week 9 (games of 2026-10-17) · generated Oct 20, 2026, 7:33 AM

Every named opening round matchup, with a win probability for the Prairie Power Index favourite. The pick is the model's, not a prediction of heart — one-game samples at high-school level swing.

Method: the pairwise PPI gap maps to a win probability (a 10-point gap ≈ 73%, the historical playoff-favourite hit rate). Records are regular-season. Games involving a school outside this site's 1A–3A model are not predicted (6 skipped this round). This page is a model, not an official bracket — the authoritative field lives on the Playoffs page.

Class 1A — 16 picks

Date	Matchup	PPI pick	Win prob
Sat, Oct 24	Lena-Winslow at Momence (6-3 vs 3-6)	Lena-Winslow PPI 76.8 · #9 vs PPI 29.3 · #56	99%
Sat, Oct 24	Oakwood at Pleasant Hill (6-3 vs 2-7)	Oakwood PPI 69.6 · #15 vs PPI 32 · #54	98%
Fri, Oct 23	Abingdon-Avon at Morrison (7-2 vs 2-7)	Abingdon-Avon PPI 69 · #16 vs PPI 32.9 · #42	97%
Sat, Oct 24	Fulton at Monmouth United (6-3 vs 3-6)	Fulton PPI 69.7 · #14 vs PPI 38.4 · #40	96%
Sat, Oct 24	Villa Grove at Dupo (6-3 vs 3-6)	Villa Grove PPI 57.5 · #24 vs PPI 26.6 · #45	96%
Fri, Oct 23	Dwight at Bureau Valley (6-3 vs 3-6)	Dwight PPI 63.6 · #20 vs PPI 40.7 · #38	91%
Fri, Oct 23	Ottawa Marquette at Princeville (6-3 vs 3-6)	Ottawa Marquette PPI 63.9 · #19 vs PPI 41.5 · #37	90%
Sat, Oct 24	Havana at Triopia (6-3 vs 3-6)	Havana PPI 58.6 · #23 vs PPI 38 · #41	89%
Sat, Oct 24	Newman Central Cath at Tremont (5-4 vs 4-5)	Newman Central Cath PPI 58.1 · #23 vs PPI 36.8 · #45	89%
Sat, Oct 24	West Central at Sesser-Valier (6-3 vs 3-6)	West Central PPI 60.5 · #22 vs PPI 40 · #39	89%
Sat, Oct 24	Carlyle at Nokomis (6-3 vs 4-5)	Carlyle PPI 55.6 · #26 vs PPI 41.4 · #41	81%
Sat, Oct 24	South Fulton at Casey-Westfield (6-3 vs 3-6)	South Fulton PPI 55.6 · #25 vs PPI 42.8 · #36	78%
Sat, Oct 24	LeRoy at Orion (5-4 vs 4-5)	LeRoy PPI 54.6 · #28 vs PPI 46.7 · #34	69%
Fri, Oct 23	Cumberland at Red Hill (5-4 vs 4-5)	Cumberland PPI 55.3 · #27 vs PPI 50.4 · #32	62%
Sat, Oct 24	Carrollton at Athens (5-4 vs 4-5)	Carrollton PPI 51.9 · #30 vs PPI 50.2 · #33	54%
Sat, Oct 24	Galena at Orr (5-3 vs 5-4)	Orr PPI 61.5 · #21 vs PPI 58 · #24	41%

Class 2A — 16 picks

Date	Matchup	PPI pick	Win prob
Fri, Oct 23	Illini West at West Hancock (7-2 vs 2-7)	Illini West PPI 64 · #17 vs PPI 33.7 · #49	95%
Fri, Oct 23	Chester at Wesclin (5-4 vs 2-7)	Chester PPI 60.7 · #19 vs PPI 32.1 · #52	95%
Sat, Oct 24	Farmington at Pleasant Plains (5-4 vs 3-6)	Farmington PPI 66.7 · #16 vs PPI 40 · #44	94%
Fri, Oct 23	Warrensburg-Latham at Georgetown-Ridge Farm (6-3 vs 3-6)	Warrensburg-Latham PPI 61.2 · #18 vs PPI 33.5 · #50	94%
Sat, Oct 24	Carmi-White County at Shelbyville (5-4 vs 2-7)	Carmi-White County PPI 58.4 · #22 vs PPI 35.2 · #46	91%
Sat, Oct 24	Auburn at Routt (5-4 vs 2-7)	Auburn PPI 54.5 · #27 vs PPI 33.3 · #51	89%
Sat, Oct 24	DuQuoin at C.-Zeigler-Royalton (5-4 vs 3-6)	DuQuoin PPI 60.4 · #20 vs PPI 40.7 · #43	88%
Fri, Oct 23	Hamilton County at Sangamon Valley (5-4 vs 3-6)	Hamilton County PPI 52 · #30 vs PPI 34.7 · #48	85%
Sat, Oct 24	Westville at Oregon (6-3 vs 3-6)	Westville PPI 57.2 · #25 vs PPI 39.6 · #47	85%
Fri, Oct 23	Carlinville at Riverton (4-5 vs 4-5)	Carlinville PPI 52 · #31 vs PPI 42.6 · #40	72%
Fri, Oct 23	Central A & M at Marshall (5-4 vs 3-6)	Central A & M PPI 51.5 · #32 vs PPI 43.1 · #39	70%
Fri, Oct 23	St. Teresa at Piasa Southwestern (4-5 vs 4-5)	St. Teresa PPI 52.4 · #28 vs PPI 46.9 · #37	63%
Fri, Oct 23	Winnebago at Elmwood-Brimfield (5-4 vs 4-5)	Winnebago PPI 54.7 · #26 vs PPI 50.9 · #35	59%
Fri, Oct 23	Stillman Valley at Reed-Custer (4-5 vs 4-5)	Stillman Valley PPI 47 · #37 vs PPI 46.3 · #38	52%
Sat, Oct 24	Bismarck-Henning at Chicago Marshall (4-5 vs 5-4)	Chicago Marshall PPI 52.4 · #33 vs PPI 52 · #29	49%
Sat, Oct 24	Beardstown at Eastland-Pearl City (4-5 vs 4-5)	Eastland-Pearl City PPI 50.3 · #36 vs PPI 43.2 · #41	33%

Class 3A — 10 picks

Date	Matchup	PPI pick	Win prob
Sat, Oct 24	Manteno at Mendota (6-3 vs 3-6)	Manteno PPI 66.7 · #16 vs PPI 35.2 · #50	96%
Sat, Oct 24	Paris at Eureka (7-2 vs 4-5)	Paris PPI 74.6 · #8 vs PPI 45.4 · #39	95%
Sat, Oct 24	Tolono Unity at Robinson (7-2 vs 4-5)	Tolono Unity PPI 63.8 · #20 vs PPI 41.1 · #44	91%
Sat, Oct 24	Fairfield at Staunton (7-2 vs 4-5)	Fairfield PPI 68.4 · #15 vs PPI 48.8 · #35	88%
Fri, Oct 23	Hope Academy at Monmouth-Roseville (5-4 vs 4-5)	Hope Academy PPI 56.7 · #27 vs PPI 40.3 · #46	84%
Fri, Oct 23	Chicago Christian at Prairie Central (5-4 vs 4-5)	Chicago Christian PPI 57.2 · #26 vs PPI 42.6 · #42	81%
Fri, Oct 23	Sandwich at Lisle (5-4 vs 4-5)	Sandwich PPI 48.6 · #36 vs PPI 38.1 · #48	74%
Sat, Oct 24	Roxana at Massac County (6-3 vs 6-3)	Roxana PPI 61.1 · #23 vs PPI 52.4 · #32	70%
Fri, Oct 23	Genoa-Kingston at North Boone (5-4 vs 4-5)	Genoa-Kingston PPI 54.4 · #29 vs PPI 47 · #38	68%
Fri, Oct 23	Greenville at PORTA (6-3 vs 5-4)	Greenville PPI 58.6 · #25 vs PPI 52.8 · #31	64%

Picks are generated from the same snapshot that powers the Playoff Picture and refresh with it after each week's games.